US Jobs Rebound Signals Likely FED Rate Cut This December

Dec 6, 2024

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The Federal Reserve, or FED, is back in the spotlight as it gears up for a critical December decision. With surprising analysts yet again, there’s plenty of chatter about rate cuts. November brought 227,000 new jobs, outpacing expectations, but unemployment also edged up to 4.2%. So, what does all this mean for Powell’s next move? Let’s dive in.

Strong Jobs Data Keeps the FED on Its Toes

November’s jobs report gave the FED plenty to think about. On one hand, the labor market looks strong, which usually means inflation could stick around. On the other, higher unemployment gives the FED some room to ease up on rates. For Powell and his team, it’s all about balance. They want to lower rates to help growth but not so quickly that they spark another inflationary fire. That’s why the December rate cut seems likely, but don’t bet on Powell going full throttle anytime soon.

The FED Keeps Us Guessing, Again

If there’s one thing the FED loves, it’s keeping everyone guessing. Officials have hinted at slowing the pace of rate cuts in 2025. Powell, ever the cautious captain, has urged markets to keep expectations in check. While December may bring a cut, 2025 might look very different. The FED is eyeing a “neutral setting” for its benchmark rate, meaning they don’t want to push too hard in either direction. It’s like walking a tightrope—every step matters.

US Jobs Data and the FED’s Balancing Act

November’s labor numbers paint a complicated picture. The economy added more jobs than expected, but unemployment crept up. For the FED, this means one thing: more careful moves. A December rate cut feels like a safe bet, but Powell and others are hesitant to commit to a long-term path just yet. They’re watching inflation like hawks, knowing that missteps could ripple across markets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

M2 and Rate Cuts Could Be Crypto’s Dream

Here’s where it gets exciting for crypto fans. Lower rates often mean more liquidity, and that’s where M2, the money supply, enters the game. Some analysts predict a significant increase in M2 by 2025, which could fuel Bitcoin’s price. Historically, Bitcoin absorbs about 10% of newly created money supply, and if M2 surges, crypto markets could see a big boost. Powell’s decisions might not just shape the economy—they could drive the next Bitcoin rally.

What Powell and the FED Might Do Next

The FED has a packed calendar. Key inflation data like the Consumer Price Index and producer prices are on the horizon, and these numbers will guide their next steps. Powell has emphasized a steady approach, balancing rate cuts with economic realities. December’s cut might be a given, but beyond that, the FED’s moves will depend on inflation trends, labor market stability, and, of course, M2. Crypto enthusiasts and traditional investors alike will be watching every word Powell says.

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