Before the Curtain Closes on 2024

Dec 16, 2024

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2024 is wrapping up, but there’s still one more Fed meeting ahead. Markets are expecting at least a 25-basis-point rate cut. But what if… the Fed chooses to hold off on a cut?

Investors are gearing up for a busy week of economic updates, highlighted by the Fed’s next interest rate decision on December 18. Before that, policymakers will get a fresh reading on consumer activity with the release of November retail sales report. Economists predict a 0.5% month-over-month increase in retail sales, likely reflecting a robust start to the holiday shopping season.

Heading into Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, markets are pricing in a roughly 97% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut. But given recent data showing the U.S. economy maintaining solid growth, the labor market that isn’t cooling quickly, and inflation’s rocky path toward the Fed’s 2% target, some analysts believe rate cuts in 2025 may not be as aggressive as initially expected.

Key to watch is the Fed’s latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), including its “dot plot,” which visualizes policymakers’ future rate expectations. Jerome Powell’s commentary during the post-meeting press conference will also be closely scrutinized for clues about the Fed’s outlook.

Meanwhile, as traders brace for the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of 2024, the crypto market has surged into bullish territory. Cryptocurrency markets are inherently optimistic, and Bitcoin’s latest rally is fueling excitement.

On Monday, Bitcoin hit a new record high after a late-weekend rally ignited market momentum. After hovering near $100,000 for days, the cryptocurrency climbed to an all-time high of $106,000, pushing its market cap to nearly $2.1 trillion.

Other tokens joined the rally ahead of the anticipated rate cut. , nearing the critical $4,000 level. Despite its recent performance, Ether has lagged behind Bitcoin in 2024. Bitcoin boasts year-to-date gains of nearly 130%, while Ether has risen about 80%.

Still, 2024 has been a landmark year for the crypto space, especially in bridging the gap for institutional and everyday investors. The launch of 11 in the U.S. marked a milestone, collectively amassing over $100 billion in assets under management in under a year. Ethereum followed suit, with nine spot ETFs holding over $10 billion in assets.

Looking ahead, investors are wondering if a Santa Rally could cap off the year with even more record highs. Will the market deliver one final surprise before the curtain closes on 2024?

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